The New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins play Game 1 of their Stanley Cup Playoffs first-round series Sunday. Puck drop is scheduled for noon ET at PPG Paints Arena. Below, we analyze the Islanders-Penguins odds and lines, with NHL picks and predictions.
The Islanders enter as the fourth-seed in the East Division, but there is no way the Penguins will be taking them lightly. The Islanders managed just two wins in the eight regular-season meetings vs. the Pens, however, five of the games were decided by just one goal.
The Penguins outscored the Islanders 15-7 in winning all four head-to-head meetings on home ice. The top-seeded Pens rattled off three straight wins to wrap up the regular season, albeit against two non-playoff teams. In their last four games against playoff teams, the Penguins went 3-1. So, they are riding high.
Islanders at Penguins: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:09 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Islanders +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Penguins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Islanders +1.5 (-250) | Penguins -1.5 (+200)
- Over/Under: 5 (O: -145 | U: +120)
Islanders at Penguins: Projected starting goalies
Semyon Varlamov (19-11-4, 2.04 GAA, .929 SV%, 7 SO) vs. Tristan Jarry (25-9-3, 2.75 GAA, .909 SV%, 2 SO)
Varlamov closed out the regular season on a losing note, dropping his final three outings. He only allowed a total of seven goals in the three losses but received just five goals of offensive support.
Varly posted a 1-3-2 record, 2.86 GAA and .897 SV% in seven appearances against the Pens this season – none of his league-high tying seven shutouts came against Pittsburgh.
Jarry started the season a bit slow, but he recovered rather nicely and was a big part why the Pens won the division.
“Jar Jar Wins” was particularly hard on the Islanders, going 5-1-0 with a 2.41 GAA and .917 SV% in six appearances against New York this season.
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Islanders at Penguins: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Penguins 2, Islanders 1
Money line (ML)
The PENGUINS (-130) are the lean here, although nothing will come easy in this series. It will be a hotly contested series between rivals regardless, but the fact they have eight regular-season games of animosity already built up will make it very entertaining … and close.
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Against the spread (ATS)
The Islanders +1.5 (-250) would be the play here if the price was a little better, but this is just too expensive for insurance.
It was already mentioned that five of the eight meetings were one-goal games. And yes, when Varlamov and Jarry are each in net, it’s usually a lower-scoring and close matchup, but New York +1.5 (-250) is just too risky at this price.
AVOID and just stick with the money line.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 5 (+120) is the lean in Game 1, and a good value. The Under cashed in three of the past four head-to-head meetings between Varlamov and Jarry. That includes a 2-1 score in the most recent matchup in Pittsburgh March 29.
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